Technical Report
Technical Report
Emerging risks
An emerging risk A risk to human, animal or plant health resulting from a new source or increased susceptibility or exposure to an existing source is: “a risk resulting from a newly identified hazard A substance or activity which has the potential to cause adverse effects to living organisms or environments to which a significant exposure Concentration or amount of a particular substance that is taken in by an individual, population or ecosystem in a specific frequency over a certain amount of time may occur, or from an unexpected new or increased significant exposure and/or susceptibility to a known hazard.”
The successful identification of emerging risks is at the heart of protecting public health and the environment. By identifying emerging risks in the food chain early, EFSA supports risk managers in anticipating risks and taking effective and timely prevention measures to protect consumers, animals, plants and the environment. Identifying emerging risks also helps to im-prove EFSA’s ability to meet future risk assessment A specialised field of applied science that involves reviewing scientific data and studies in order to evaluate risks associated with certain hazards. It involves four steps: hazard identification, hazard characterisation, exposure assessment and risk characterisation challenges, for example, by mining new sources of data, developing new analytical tools and methods, and broadening networks of scientific knowledge.
Latest
Could the ever-increasing use of the world’s oceans affect food and feed safety in Europe? A report by two of EFSA’s partners in Spain and Portugal looks at the drivers of change that could impact on and lead to potential emerging issues for the safety of food and feed from the oceans.
The study indicated three key ocean uses – coastal and open-sea mining, marine aquaculture, and sea transport and trade – and developed scenarios for each up to 2050. The results can help EFSA and its partners to prepare for future challenges posed by the exploitation of ocean resources in the decades to come.
The research was carried out by scientists at Food Research (AZTI) of the Basque Research and Technology Alliance in Spain, and the Interdisciplinary Centre of Marine and Environmental Research in Portugal.
Milestones
2022
Phase two of the EuroCigua project kicks off. (See our topic on Ciguatoxins and other marine biotoxins for the full story.)
2021
A series of four external scientific reports on ciguatera in Europe signal the completion of the first phase of the EuroCigua project.
2020
EFSA publishes the results of the CLEFSA Project (see also separate topic) describing a methodology for identifying and characterising the possible effects of climate change on emerging risks in the food safety area, and holds an info session.
2019
EFSA publishes reports on identifying emerging risks and drivers using food chain analysis on aquaculture of Atlantic salmon and potential emerging chemical risks in the food chain of substances under REACH 2. See also EFSA's Activities on Emerging Risks in 2019.
2018
EFSA develops the concept for the DEMETER project: an Emerging Risks Knowledge Exchange Platform (ERKEP) Framework. See also EFSA's Activities on Emerging Risks in 2018.
2017
EFSA organises a session of the IAFP 2017 European Symposium on food safety. See also EFSA's Activities on Emerging Risks in 2017.
2016
EFSA tests a text mining tool for emerging risk identification, a media monitoring tool MedISys for plant health threats and a procedure for identifying emerging chemical risks in the food chain. See also EFSA's Activities on Emerging Risks in 2016.
2015
An EFSA funded project reviews and analyses cyanobacteria toxins in food while EFSA appraises its procedures and future directions for identification of emerging risks. See also EFSA's Activities on Emerging Risks in 2015.
2014
EFSA finalises a systematic procedure for the identification of emerging chemical risks in the food/feed chain and identifies drivers and interactions of emerging biological risks. See also: EFSA’s Activities on Emerging Risks in 2014.
2012
EFSA pilots a new process for emerging risks identification, and evaluates a system for scanning Eurostat data to detect trends in trade.
EFSA supports a project on modelling, predicting and mapping the emergence of aflatoxins in cereals in the EU due to climate change. See also EFSA's activities on Emerging Risks 2012-2013.
2011
EFSA’s 15th Scientific Colloquium covers its work on emerging risks, while the 16th looks at emerging risks in plant health.
2010
EFSA developed IT tools for identifying emerging risks through routine analysis of data from the Rapid Alert System on Food and Feed (RASFF) of the European Commission and databases of trade statistics from the EU’s Comtext and the UN’s Comtrade databases.
2009
EFSA developed IT tools to support the development of web monitoring systems for the detection of emerging risks.
2007
2006
EFSA’s Scientific Committee adopts an opinion on the early identification of emerging risks.
EFSA's role
Under Article 34 of EFSA’s Founding Regulation 178/2002, the Authority is required to:
- identify, assess and disseminate information on emerging issues and ensure coordination with relevant networks and international organisations
- promote the identification of data sources and data collection and/or data generation in prioritised emerging issues
- evaluate the collected information and identify emerging risks.
The drivers of emerging risks may include population Community of humans, animals or plants from the same species growth, globalisation, resource and energy scarcity, slowing agricultural productivity, increasing concentration of the supply chain, price volatility, changing diet trends and the emergence of anti-microbial resistant strands to name a few.
Since 2002, EFSA has taken a number of practical steps to assist with the identification of emerging risks, including:
- develop a methodological framework
- implement operational processes for emerging risk identification
- identify and assess selected sources of information
- develop and test tools to collect and filter relevant information.
Each year EFSA publishes a report detailing its strategy and activities on emerging risks in food and feed.
Networks
Emerging risk identification is a complex process requiring broad expertise and close cooperation with Member States, stakeholders, and EU and international agencies. Dedicated networks provide the structures needed to exchange experience, methods and data and to assess emerging issues.